As the war in Iran continues, with President Donald Trump suggesting strikes could continue for weeks, global energy markets are experiencing severe volatility.
Rising Costs in the United States
How high could gas prices go? Record not out
In the United States, gas prices hit another recent high on Thursday. According to AAA, a gallon of regular gas now averages $4.08, the highest in four years. This follows a period of extreme volatility; during the 2022 Ukraine-Russia conflict, prices briefly hit $5.02 a gallon, the only time in U.S. history the national average has topped $5. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy noted that while prices will likely range between $4.25 and $4.45 a gallon, he could not rule out a further jump into record territory.
Patrick De Haanは、2009年まで遡ると、全国平均でガソリン1ガロンあたり4ドルに達したのはわずか157日間にすぎないと述べ、そのためこれは消費者の心理面において不快な水準に達しつつあると指摘した。さらに同氏は、多くの米国人が2009年や2022年当時と比較して中位所得を増やしているものの、給油機に表示される金額がガソリンの給油量よりもはるかに速いペースで上昇しているのを見るのは、依然として多くの消費者にとって不快なことであると付け加えた。He also expects diesel prices to hit $6.05 a gallon, which would set a record. High diesel costs could trickle down into higher prices for consumers across the economy.
California’s Fuel Crisis
California gas nears $6, diesel hits record $7.45 amid
California is facing particularly acute pressure as fuel shortages drive costs higher. As of March 31, diesel reached a statewide average of $7.45—the highest ever recorded—while regular gasoline is nearing $6 at $5.88 per gallon. In Los Angeles County, the average passed the $6 mark, exceeding both state and national averages. According to the California Energy Commission, diesel constitutes 17% of total fuel sales in California, with around 3.5 billion gallons sold annually to power heavy-duty trucks, buses, agriculture, and construction. Approximately 737,900 vehicles in California are registered to use diesel.
Impact on the Transportation Industry
The transportation sector remains highly sensitive to these fluctuations. According to Patrick De Haan, the average diesel price in Wisconsin peaked at $5.88 a gallon on May 13 before dipping to $5.68 following Memorial Day.
European Market Volatility
Record diesel prices
The energy crunch extends to Europe, where diesel prices have climbed to record levels. In Germany, the ADAC reported that the average diesel price on April 6 reached €2.443 per litre, while Dutch media reported that the national recommended diesel price in the Netherlands had risen to €2.799 per litre. Consumers in the Netherlands are paying around €2.80 per litre of diesel, about 36 cents more than in Germany, a difference attributed to higher taxes and levies. On July 22, the consumer collective UnitedConsumers put the price of Euro95 petrol in the Netherlands at 2.612 euros a litre, while diesel reached 2.580 euros per litre. ING economist Rico Luman noted that diesel prices have risen by about 30 cents per litre in two weeks due to low inventory.
Global Economic Implications
Internationally, oil prices have risen by approximately 9-10% following Israel-US strikes on Iran. Brent crude, the international benchmark, moved close to $80 per barrel, while US crude futures advanced 8.6 percent, compared with roughly $67 on Friday. India, which meets about 88% of its crude oil demand through imports, faces a higher import burden and potential inflationary effects. Despite the sharp increase in global oil prices, retail petrol and diesel prices in India are not expected to be revised upward in the immediate future. Top executives in the consumer goods sector have expressed concern that rising crude oil prices, supply chain bottlenecks, and weakening consumer confidence could undermine the fragile recovery in demand amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.
