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スウェーデン総選挙、中道左派陣営が3議席リードで勝利する見通し

Sweden’s general election on September 14, 2026, resulted in a razor-thin center-left victory over the right-wing ruling coalition, with preliminary counts showing the opposition…

スウェーデン総選挙、中道左派陣営が3議席リードで勝利する見通し

Sweden’s general election on September 14, 2026, resulted in a razor-thin center-left victory over the right-wing ruling coalition, with preliminary counts showing the opposition bloc leading by three seats in the 349-member parliament. The Swedish Election Authority reported that 94.4% of votes had been counted by Monday, with the center-left opposition projected to secure 176 seats and the right-wing bloc 173 seats. However, final results remained pending due to ongoing overseas ballot counting, which was expected to conclude by Wednesday, according to the authority.

Leader of the Social Democratic Party and opposition bloc, Magdalena Andersson, addressed supporters on Sunday night, stating that if this result remains valid, Sweden will get a new government. Andersson emphasized the need for patience, as the final tally would not be complete until overseas votes were processed. The far-right Sweden Democrats, which had sought to enter government for the first time, lost an estimated 11 seats, dropping to third place behind the Moderates, according to projections. Their vote share fell to 17.6%, down from 20.5% in the 2022 election, as reported by the Swedish Election Authority.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, leader of the right-wing coalition, acknowledged the uncertainty of the outcome, stating that they still don’t have a final result. Kristersson reiterated his commitment to ensuring the very best government for our country but stopped short of conceding. His coalition, which includes the Moderate Party, Christian Democrats, and Sweden Democrats, faced challenges in forming a majority, as the Social Democrats remained the largest single party but saw their vote share decline to 28.1%, their worst result in over a century, according to the Election Authority.

The election campaign, marked by intense polarization and personal attacks, saw early polls favoring the center-left by 10 percentage points. However, the race tightened significantly, with the final weeks narrowing the gap to two to three percentage points. By Sunday night, the two blocs were separated by just 0.45% of the vote, according to the Election Authority. At 10:30 p.m. local time, broadcaster SVT estimated the margin between the blocs at 20,000 votes, highlighting the contest’s precarious balance.

Swedish election: centre-left parties lead by just a single

Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson acknowledged the uncertainty, stating, We will not know tonight who would form the next government. The party’s decline reflected broader shifts in voter sentiment, as the center-left’s narrow lead signaled a potential return to left-leaning governance after four years of rightward momentum. The Social Democrats, historically Sweden’s dominant party, faced internal challenges in assembling a coalition, as the Centre Party refused to cooperate with the Left Party, which demanded inclusion in any governing arrangement.

Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch of the Christian Democrats, part of the ruling coalition, expressed frustration with the delayed result, stating that Sweden will be going to bed with uncertainty. She defended the coalition’s position, arguing it represented the only unified government alternative in the election. Meanwhile, Andersson’s party faced its own internal debates over coalition-building, with no clear indication of which parties would join the Social Democrats in forming a government.

Sweden’s centre-left leads by three seats as vote counting

The final vote count, expected to conclude by the end of the week, included late postal ballots and overseas votes cast at Swedish embassies. The Election Authority noted that preliminary results may not be finalized until Thursday, underscoring the complexity of the process. In 2022, similar delays led to premature exit poll predictions, which proved inaccurate as the final tally shifted. Kristersson’s refusal to concede in 2022 highlighted the political stakes, a pattern that seemed to repeat in 2026 as both sides awaited the official outcome.

Sweden’s centre-left leads by three seats as vote counting continues
Photo: Aljazeera
Leader of the opposition and the Swedish Social Democratic Party Magdalena Andersson and Party Secretary Tobias Baudin join
Photo: Reuters

The election’s narrow margin reflected broader societal tensions in Sweden, including debates over immigration policies and economic direction. Over the past four years, the country had shifted toward stricter asylum rules, a trend the center-left sought to reverse. Andersson’s potential return to power would mark a departure from the right-wing policies of the past decade, though her ability to form a stable government remained uncertain. The Sweden Democrats’ diminished influence, despite their historical rise, suggested a possible moderation in the political landscape, though their presence as the third-largest party ensured their continued relevance.

As the final results neared, both blocs prepared for protracted negotiations. Kristersson emphasized the need to look at possible combinations once the tally was complete, while Andersson reiterated her commitment to taking responsibility for the result. The outcome of the election would shape Sweden’s domestic and foreign policies, with implications for regional stability and European Union relations. The protracted process, however, left the country in a state of political limbo, awaiting the official declaration of a new government.

Sweden Elections LIVE | Sweden’s Centre-Left Leads With 51.3% in Exit Poll
Sweden’s centre-left edges ahead by three seat in preliminary results
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