英国の経済成長は失業率上昇で来年鈍化すると予想 – ビジネスは活況 |仕事

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With the budget over, bar the inquest, attention is again turning to the health of the UK economy.

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We’ll get a healthcheck on Britain’s manufacturing sector this morning, and an assessment of the mortgage and credit market but first, there are a flurry of economic surveys to digest.

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KPMG have predicted that the UK economy will cool in 2026 as weak consumer sentiment and a slowing job market weighs on growth. They predict UK GDP will rise by 1.0% in 2026, down from 1.4% in 2025, with unemployment rising next year too.

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That’s a weaker forecast than the Office for Budget Responsibility – which predicted last week that growth would fall to 1.4% in 2026 from 1.5% this year.

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KPMG UK’s latest Economic Outlook also predicts the unemployment rate will rise to 5.2% in 2026, reflecting slower hiring, increasing participation and job cuts as companies look to automate some job fnctions.

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Wage growth is expected to slow, falling towards 3% by mid-2026 – something that might encourage the Bank of England to lower interest rates.

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ヤエル・セルフィン のチーフエコノミスト KPMG イギリス、 言った：

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n

「労働市場の冷え込みと家計支出の低迷の影響を反映し、2026年の成長見通しは抑制される。しかし、データインフラやグリーンエネルギー投資という形で強さの部分も出てきている。計画改革によって住宅供給が可能になり、投資家にとっての不確実性が軽減すれば、中期的な見通しはさらに改善する可能性がある。」

n

「継続的な逆風が家計活動の重しとなっており、消費支出は来年も引き続き抑制される可能性が高い。秋予算では前倒し増税は回避されたものの、凍結された税率基準を2031年まで維持するという決定は、財政の足かせが続くことを意味している。」

n

“,”elementId”:”de4dc47b-ac21-43b2-ac1e-2ab69ce91358″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

の CBI 悲観的なニュースもあります。過去 3 か月でサービス部門全体の景況感と活動がさらに低下したと報告されています。

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の CBIの 最新のサービス部門調査では、取引量が再び減少し、1年以上の減少を記録したことが判明しました。一方、コストの伸びが依然として高いにもかかわらず、平均販売価格は変化しませんでした。

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今後の見通しとして、サービス部門の企業は、次の四半期も販売量が減少し続けると予想しています。

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そして、その憂鬱を和らげるために、 IoDディレクターの経済信頼度指数 過去最低水準で推移している。

“,”elementId”:”ad81e61b-8c08-43de-a78b-eb883dd4ffff”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

11月の指数は-73で変わらず、10月の測定値と一致したが、予算編成直後には-72まで徐々に上昇した。

“,”elementId”:”7b02724f-fbd0-4ff4-9a8a-9bb79c738d91″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubHeadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

議題

“,”elementId”:”97f2c691-fd52-454c-b614-401b7f2bad75″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

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  午前9時（グリニッジ標準時）：ユーロ圏製造業PMIレポート

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  午前9時30分（グリニッジ標準時）：英国の消費者信用および住宅ローンの承認

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  午前9時30分（グリニッジ標準時）：英国製造業PMIレポート

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  GMT午後3時：米国製造業PMIレポート

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