経済がデフレと戦う中、中国の消費者物価は15年間で最も速いペースで下落 – ビジネスのライブ | 仕事

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Song argues that China is not trapped in a “deflationary spiral”, and predicts that pork prices could pick due to demand in this month’s Lunar new year holidays.

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「:」

歌 説明します:

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連続データは、より明るいイメージを描きます。 前月比では、総合 CPI は 0.3% 上昇、食品 CPI は 0.4% 上昇、非食品 CPI は 0.2% 上昇しました。 他の多くの国で見られる目標を上回るインフレ水準とは程遠いものの、これらの数字は中国がデフレスパイラルにはまっていることを示唆するものではない。

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さらに、中国の豚肉サイクルは、豚肉価格による影響も今後数カ月で薄れることを示している。 1月のデータでは依然として大きな足かせとなっているが、豚肉価格のインフレは過去2カ月間実際に上昇しており、2023年12月の豚在庫の前月比変化は2022年3月以来最大の下落となった。2月の旧正月休暇に向けた需要が予想されるため、 、来月のリリースではプラス成長に戻る可能性があります。

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したがって、2月のデータのより有利なベース効果を考慮すると、1月のデータが現在のサイクルにおける前年比インフレ率の最低点を示す可能性が高いと考えられます。

n

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ING”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true ,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1707376727000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”18.18 AEDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1707377608000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”18.33 AEDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1707377608000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”18 .33 AEDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”18.33″,”title”:”ING: おそらくこれが中国のインフレの底値です”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”2024 年 2 月 8 日木曜日 18.33 AEDT”,”SecondaryDateLine”:”初公開日 2024 年 2 月 8 日木曜日 18.16 AEDT”},{“id”:”65c4744d8f08ddaeb791ac96″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

“,”elementId”:”6f5ab5eb-873c-4f78-87db-1057638d979b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Consumer prices across China are falling at the fastest pace in 15 years, as its economy struggles with weak demand.

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China’s consumer price index fell 0.8% year-on-year in January, data released this morning showed. It’s the fourth straight month of declines, and the biggest contraction since 2009 after the financial crisis.

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The inflation rate was dragged down by falling food prices, which dropped by 5.9% year-on-year in January.

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Pork prices dropped by 17%, and were a major drag on inflation, while fresh vegetables were 12.7% cheaper than a year ago and fruit cost 9.1% less.

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🇨🇳#inflation #China #reporting
China – consumer inflation CPI (Jan)
m/m = +0.3% (expected +0.4% / previously +0.1%)
y/y = -0.8% (expected -0.5% / previously -0.3%)
Traditionally, the media write about deflation in China
The fall in consumer prices in January was the strongest… pic.twitter.com/75KSrAVMSA

— FinNews (@FinNews_) February 8, 2024

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China’s factories continued to cut their prices last month, too. The producer price index (PPI) slid 2.5% from a year earlier in January after a 2.7% fall the previous month.

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China’s consumer prices dropped into deflationary territory last summer, and prices have been flattish since.

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Its economy has struggled as the bounceback following the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions falters, and as its indebted real estates sector contracts.

“,”elementId”:”95cb6d53-7fc4-4844-8047-f7525aa2cccc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”China’s economy is struggling but fears of sustained deflation are premature”,”elementId”:”251f110e-14d5-40f6-920e-332ddb99a256″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/09/china-economy-is-struggling-but-fears-of-sustained-deflation-are-premature”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The drop in annual inflation puts more pressure on Beijing policymakers to take fresh steps to stimulate the economy.

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China’s stock markets have rallied a little today.

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Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com, says the markets have “ostensibly reacted favourably” to disappointing Chinese price data.

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n

While a very concerning sign for China’s economy, which could be becoming entrenched in a debt and deflation cycle, the markets arguably responded in a positive way to the news.

n

Perhaps markets see the terribly low number as a potential catalyst for more muscular monetary or fiscal stimulus from the central government, which, up until this point, has been moderate in applying countercyclical policy.

n

“,”elementId”:”ee60b52f-2a72-47c6-963d-b28d8bfc2460″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”source”:”Twitter”,”id”:”1755472736502120692″,”elementId”:”6d614097-bf10-4f97-acdf-3473a08d8d14″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/FrederikEngholm/status/1755472736502120692″,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”html”:”

China CPI weakens further to -0,8%. Keeps the deflation story alive but it also adds pressure for stronger government support. #china #dkøko #dkfinans pic.twitter.com/XOScmyKZix

— Frederik Engholm (@FrederikEngholm) February 8, 2024

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The agenda

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n

• 9.30am GMT: Latest weekly data on UK economic and business activity

n

• 1.30pm GMT: US weekly jobless claims figures

n

• 3pm GMT: Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann to give speech: “Mind the Gap(s): Inflation Data and Prospects”

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重要なイベント

ING：おそらく中国のインフレはこれが底だろう

ＩＮＧのグレーター担当チーフエコノミスト、リン・ソング氏によると、中国の１月の年率マイナス０．８％のインフレ率は、現在の景気サイクルの最低点となる可能性がある 中国。

歌 中国は「デフレスパイラル」には陥っていないと主張し、今月の旧正月休暇の需要により豚肉価格が上昇する可能性があると予測している。

歌 説明します:

連続データは、より明るいイメージを描きます。 前月比では、総合 CPI は 0.3% 上昇、食品 CPI は 0.4% 上昇、非食品 CPI は 0.2% 上昇しました。 他の多くの国で見られる目標を上回るインフレ水準とは程遠いものの、これらの数字は中国がデフレスパイラルにはまっていることを示唆するものではない。

さらに、中国の豚肉サイクルは、豚肉価格による影響も今後数カ月で薄れることを示している。 1月のデータでは依然として大きな足かせとなっているが、豚肉価格のインフレは過去2カ月間実際に上昇しており、2023年12月の豚在庫の前月比変化は2022年3月以来最大の下落となった。2月の旧正月休暇に向けた需要が予想されるため、 、来月のリリースではプラス成長に戻る可能性があります。

したがって、2月のデータのより有利なベース効果を考慮すると、1月のデータが現在のサイクルにおける前年比インフレ率の最低点を示す可能性が高いと考えられます。