メンフィス国際空港 (MEM) の航空運賃の傾向と夏に予想されることは次のとおりです。

When airline travel roared back to life after the pandemic, fares rose quickly. But by summer 2023, domestic fares, especially for non-premium seats, started to sink as international travel surged.

That trend has largely continued nationally, and in Memphis and Nashville, both saw a decrease in the average domestic fare from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023.

That’s according to a recent Business Journals analysis of year-over-year third quarter airfare data from Cirium Inc., which showed domestic, one-way fares at Memphis International declined 4% year over year from the third quarter of 2022. Nationally, fares declined by 5%.

In Q3 2023, the average fare at MEM stood at $188 compared to $196 in the prior year quarter. Similarly, the average fare in Q3 2023 at Nashville International Airport decreased 3.8% year over year to $156. Notably, total enplanements at both MEM and Nashville International rose about 8% from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023.

“There is still too much capacity in the biggest domestic leisure markets, so fares remain suppressed,” explained Brett Snyder, president of Cranky Flier LLC. “But airlines are saying the situation is getting better, which means fares will rebound.”

George Ferguson, an aerospace analyst at Bloomberg, said good, old-fashioned competition is at play in many markets.

“Low-cost carriers have really ramped up flying,” he said. “To the extent an airport has more low-cost carriers operating out of it, the fares will be more competitive.”

Many of the nation’s largest carriers are also countering the ultra-low-cost carriers with streamlined flight options — basic economy fares that are comparable to the a la carte models of low-cost carriers like Spirit Airlines or Frontier Airlines.

National trends in domestic fares

Of American airports that served at least 100,000 passengers between 2022 and 2023, those in Florida saw the biggest declines in one-way domestic fares.

That includes both Orlando Sanford Airport, which saw a 20% decline, and Orlando International Airport, where fares dropped by more than 15%.

Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina (-14.6%), Cleveland (-14.5%), and Portland, Oregon (-14.4%) also had among the largest drops.

Fares also fell at major hubs, including Seattle–Tacoma International Airport (-12.7%), Philadelphia International Airport (-12.3%), Los Angeles (-10.8%), San Francisco International Airport (-9.9%), and Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (-9.7%). 

When it came to fare increases, California led the way.

Long Beach (9.3%), Burbank (8.5%), Oakland (6.9%), Palm Springs (5.4%), Sacramento (4.4%) ,and San Jose (3.9%) all saw gains.

St. Thomas, Virgin Islands saw the most substantial increase (12.8%) of any American airport, but that’s more indicative of stronger international fares, and analysts don’t foresee big changes there just yet.   

Summer rates might still come down

According to Snyder, while the economy remains robust, Americans will spend on travel and airlines will be able to move airplanes around, preventing fares from falling too much. He also believes there’s still plenty of pent-up demand, and travelers can expect a busy summer season.

“Premium supply demand balance is better and is supporting revenue and profits at the full-service carriers,” Bloomberg’s Ferguson said. “This (past) summer, folks needed their European vacation fix and were willing to pay whatever it took. That supported Delta, American, and United revenues, and profits as well.”

But international fares might come under pressure later this summer.

“We will see if the long-haul international market can continue to support higher fares. That hasn’t changed yet, especially over the oceans, so no big relief for consumers is in sight at this point,” Snyder said.

Ferguson sees a confluence of issues. “As demand comes off the peak, we will also be fighting a slowing U.S. economy with persistent inflation and higher interest rates. These factors will pressure the consumer. Against the backdrop of higher capacity, I think we could see falling fares. But if airlines rein in capacity, fares could stabilize,” he said.

A catch-22 also dogs major carriers.

“They want to fly all the airplanes they buy and the more they fly, the lower the per-seat cost,” Ferguson said. “They will want to keep capacity up until losses occur, which I don’t think we see in the second and third quarter summer flying season, so it could be a pretty good summer to fly somewhere.”

That said, Asia may be the exception. Both analysts noted economic and political pressures there. Although budget providers have made headway into the Pacific market, as well.

“Fares will be very high since there is much less capacity in the region thanks to political issues limiting flights between the U.S. and China,” Snyder said.

Ferguson highlighted foreign financial concerns, but noted not all carriers would be affected.

“Economies of our largest trading partners Japan and China are struggling, hurting demand,” he said. “But this market really only supports United and Delta revenue and earnings. American has very little exposure.”