Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz
The escalation followed a series of military engagements in the Strait of Hormuz. According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), U.S. forces carried out a round of strikes on July 8 to “degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners.” This followed a previous round of strikes on July 7. In total, the two operations resulted in U.S. forces hitting approximately 170 Iranian military targets.
CENTCOM specified that the July 8 operation hit approximately 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along the Iranian coastline. The July 7 strikes hit about 80 targets, including more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small boats, in response to Tehran attacking three commercial vessels navigating the waterway.
In retaliation, the IRGC targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait—specifically Arifjan and Ali Al Salem—as well as Bahrain’s Juffair and Sheikh Isa bases.
Economic Consequences and Market Volatility
The conflict has directly impacted international energy markets. Following the attacks on commercial vessels, the U.S. Treasury Department withdrew a waiver that had allowed Iran to sell its oil. On the morning of July 9, global benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery held above $78 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded at $73.55.
Diplomatic Stance and Military Posture
President Trump addressed the ongoing military situation while speaking to reporters, stating, “I say we hit them 20 to 1 – every time they hit us, we’re going to hit them 20, and we did it last night.” When asked if the U.S. and Iran were returning to a full-scale military conflict, the President responded, “I don’t know,” adding that if the war resumed, the U.S. would “win it very quickly.”
The President expressed skepticism regarding further diplomatic efforts, telling reporters during an appearance with NATO chief Mark Rutte in Ankara, Turkey, “I don’t want to deal with them anymore … as far as I’m concerned, it’s over.” He described the process of negotiating with the Iranian side as a waste of time.
Iranian Response and Future of the Agreement
Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Thursday characterizing the U.S. strikes as a violation of the memorandum of understanding reached less than four weeks ago. The Ministry stated that it “emphasizes the determination of the Islamic Republic of Iran to defend the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iran and punish the aggressors.”
Esmaeil Baqaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, claimed in an X post that the U.S. had violated the agreement’s structure through “unilateral actions and also aggressive attacks against Iran.” Baqaei wrote that the Islamic Republic of Iran “will steadfastly pursue the protection of its national interests and the exercise of its sovereignty.”
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil and other commodities, has remained the primary point of contention. Under the previous memorandum of understanding, the U.S. had agreed to lift a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran had agreed to make its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels. President Trump noted that while he had received word that Iran wants to make a deal, he remained doubtful of their intentions, stating, “I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honor the deal. That’s the problem.”
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